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WARN Notices, Part 2

Updated: Aug 28

  • Flight Ops WARN Notices, Part 2

  • Updated: GRAPHS page and WARN JrMan# updated

  • Updated: PDF with the 20-09D award subtracting the early outs awards


August 27, 2020.

Today, at 1340 CT, Flight Ops announced another round of WARN notices, and an updated Q4 plan for total staffing reductions in 2020. CARES2 is still in limbo, so this is what the staffing picture looks like, as of today.


July 10, 2020, WARN notices (All numbers static):

Seniority List JrMan: 13,047.
WARN Notices: 2,250.
WARN JrMan: 10,797.

August 27, 2020, WARN notices:

WARN Notices: 603.
WARN JrMan: 10,194 (10,797603).

This was just confirmed by the latest CCS message, at 1717 CT:

Date: Aug 27 20 1717 CT

Below are the seniority ranges for those 2,850 pilots receiving furlough notices:

October 1: seniority 11298 and junior
October 30: seniority 10726 through 11297
November 30: seniority 10195 through 10725

These numbers are likely to change as pilots bid for voluntary furlough. Seniority numbers are from the July 1, 2020 seniority list.


We hope this will help answer any questions regarding the seniority numbers of those affected.

Let’s take a look at the CCS staffing reports:

August 1, 2020: 12,900 pilots.
September 1, 2020: 12,473.
Difference: 427.
Scheduled mandatory retirements for August 2020: 31
Estimated early outs, effective August 29: 396 (427-31).
(September 1, 2020, will show the DEC 2020 staffing in CCS)

So far, everything still points to a planned pilot staffing reduction based on the original “-30% plan.”

13,000 ... 100%
3,900 ... 30%
6,500 ... 50%

The announced 2,850 furloughs for all of 2020, plus an estimated 400 early outs, plus about 200 scheduled mandatory retirements since plan inception in Q2, equals a staff reduction of about 3,450, for 2020.


If all 502 early out awards would retire, then that number would be about 3,550.

That’s still shy of the original plan’s 3,900 number.


Why?


Caution – this is pure speculation:

It appears to be insurance for some much-needed flexibility, due in part to the “Southwest effect.”

Southwest has decided not to furlough this year, and await what developments the next two quarters and the new year bring. They are leading aggressively in rebuilding their network, they have many good reasons for being able to do this, and it should be good for the industry – this has got to cause some tweaking of business plans for competitors.


Even without a CARES2 act, Q4 and some particularly important holidays are safe, for now, in Southwest land – now that’s true LUV ;-)



The GRAPHS page has been updated with the August 27, 2020, Junior Man.



The PDF with the 20-09D award subtracting the early outs awards has been updated and it is here.


There was a problem with properly counting double-bid positions (SUP & TI).

This has been corrected. Early Out (EO) Base Seniorities and percentages have changed for all categories.



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