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Tuesday Update, June 30, 2020: TSA Throughput numbers.

The TSA charts are update here.

NOTE: Forecasts are hypothetical and speculative.

Forecasts with outlook beyond 30 days are extremely speculative.

Peruse cautiously, and use responsibly.

Disclaimer: "I'm with the tour group."

The data cycle since bottom is Tuesday - Monday.

With the Monday traffic number available on Tuesday mornings, any future commentary on the data, if any, may be available on Tuesdays.

This commentary does not consider all the news and facts regarding Covid-19. It is simply an observation on TSA daily traffic data and weekly trendlines for existing data.

The brief acceleration we saw the last two weeks ended up fading this week.

We are back to hugging the numbers from the June 21 simple, or standard, forecast:

If current trends continue ...

The doubling of traffic from 350,000 to 700,000 should now occur as predicted by the early June forecasts - the weekend before or after July 7, 2020.

This week's data is still suggesting that we should cross the important milestone of 1,000,000 sometime at the end of July or the first half of August, 2020.

The simple forecast is telling us that we will cross the 1,000,000 daily traffic number in August, 2020 (chart above).

The polynomial for the traffic data continues to show the 1,000,000 mark around the last week of July, 2020:

The poly charts are explained in detail in this blog post.

The poly suggests that new traffic data arriving matches the previous patterns and matches the last few weeks' "forecast", or poly trend-line, for the rest of the year. It does so in such a way that the poly curve fit continues to increase in fitment over previous weeks - from 88.8% to 94.25% this week.

The percentage line (red) seems to mirror the actual traffic data, however, this is only an approximation since each percentage normalizes to the traffic number for 2019. On a short term poly (30-60 days), the approximation is close enough to be somewhat useful - the percentage scale on the right roughly correlates to the traffic scale on the left for the latest data point (June 29, 2020). The 30 and 60 day extrapolations are an even rougher estimate of that correlation, but they provide a general trend.

The poly charts are explained in detail in this blog post.

The 120 day poly is explained here.

You cannot read too much into all of this, as a 120 day poly is outrageously too far ahead of the data.

A few key points from the blog posts explaining the polynomial charts:

  • The poly is simply an equation that describes current data. It does so better than a linear regression (for this set of data).

  • The poly curve projecting into future days on the calendar is a trendline that could simply be read or used like this: IF the new data rolling in follows the same pattern as the previous data, then the new data should remain close to the poly curve. That's it - not more, not less.

  • The polynomial equation and trendline is unaware of the million variables out there that can affect the actual future traffic numbers.

For completeness, we added a linear regression.

The linear regression and trendline is unaware of the million variables out there that can affect the actual future traffic numbers.

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