OAG revamped their Coronavirus industry recovery tracker site. - link always available on the UAL Matrix TSA traffic tracker page.
Excellent interactive charts, overview and discussion of global aviation markets - all free of charge, for now (remarkable - OAG data subscriptions are in the thousands of US dollars per year, last time I checked).
"Matrix Reloaded: The Complexity of Recovery for Legacy Airlines."
Some key takeaways:
Capacity is far ahead of actual traffic (50% vs 30%), even after airlines have aggressively removed capacity compared from what was anticipated and planned in the previous 6-8 weeks. Legacies have removed about 25% of planned August traffic.
China is back to 2019 level domestically, South Korea is slightly higher than 2019.
Vietnam is over 20% over 2019 levels!
However, globally - "Airlines are hunkering down for a winter with traffic levels expected at around 50%." They are filing for slots, permits, etc., reflecting that capacity.
Closer looks at American Airlines vs Japan Airlines - revenue by domestic and international, open vs restricted.
Lufthansa Airlines vs British Airways.
Emirates vs Cathay Pacific.
OAG analysts were hoping for a "return to normal (2019 levels) in 2021-22."
This month, they are bearish and leaning towards 2023-24, tending to agree with IATA analysts.
Keep in mind that all this is very dynamic and subject to change weekly and monthly.
Also, the very critical CARES2 has not been decided yet.