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Interpreting Manpower Planning's OCT 21 Bulletin

Updated: Oct 29, 2020

OCT 28, 2020, 10:00 CT

Flying Together > Flight Operations > Crew Resources

Crew Resources Update (link to FT intranet)

Applies to: All pilots     Effective: October 21, 2020

Matrix to compare to (Headcount & Base Positions)

OCT 15: LOA 20-05 Update

OCT 19: LOA 20-05 Paragraph G Do Over Selection Process


Which Matrix do I compare to - Headcount or Base Positions?

Headcount: adds up everyone in each category and includes LTA, SUP, RET, etc.

Base Positions: Base Seniority, excludes all pilots with status LTA, SUP, RET, etc.

Answering the next question below, reveals that the numbers in the OCT 21 bulleting refer to Headcount minus LTA.


"On Paul Carlson crew resources update for vacancy chart.  It shows 787 SFO CA 230.  Then plus 30.   Does that mean they NEED 30 more captains?"

Great question.

Mr. Carlson, MD of Manpower Planning, responded:

"I show 230, minus 40 in the PVSL, minus another 30 who will retire over the next 12 months.  That brings it to 160, but we need around 190, thus the 30."

Confused pilot: "What I was trying to say is on the latest category summary it shows 192. The 192 takes into account the PVSL and RET if I looking at it correctly! Those are counted twice thus the 192 figure. But Paul is saying 160????—after the PVSL and ret are counted. So I don’t understand the 160 figure. For example if you look at DEC staffing vs NOV staffing on SFO787 ca. It goes from 204 down to 178. So I’m assuming the big drop are the early outs that had to wait until NOV 30? Thx."

So what is Mr. Carlson saying?

Looking at the OCT 19 Category Summary matrix, for SFO787CA category, we see:

Headcount: 252

Base Positions: 192

The OCT 19, 2020, Category Summary shows the following for SFO787CA:

LTA:   23
SUP:   7
RET:   5
P-VSL: 25
Total: 60 "inactive"

Headcount number: 252

252 - 60 "inactive" = 192 active pilots => Base Positions: 192

So, if you take the 25 P-VSL in the Category Summary and add the 14 P-VSL2 retirements for April 2021, you get 39 total P-VSL retirements. Mr. Carlson rounds here to 40.

Matrix observations & interpretation:

"I show 230" - looks to me that he is taking the 252 headcount and he is substracting the 23 pilots on LTA = 229 pilots, which are rounded to 230 for simplicity of email communications.

"We need around 190" is clearly referencing the "active" Base Positions.

Then he looks at at the "next 12 months" to provide some general guidance.

Looks like the 40 PVSL retirements in that category were just what he needed by April, but he is letting everybody know that the 30 mandatory age 65 retirements over the next 12 months will be replaced with vacancy bids.

Looks like DCA787CA will shrink through attrition - you probably won't be able to bid into that category in any upcoming vacancy bids.

SFO787CA, on the other hand, can see up to 30 vacancies "over the next 12 months" to ensure about 190 active base positions.

That's the UAL Matrix interpretation of what Mr. Carlson is communicating in the OCT 21, 2020, bulletin. To assist with your analysis, here is the LTA count for the OCT 19 Category Summary:

While we gladly entertain all questions under our Terms of Service (TOS), you should always first get an official response from Manpower Planning and ALPA.

  • UAL Flt Ops Manpower Planning Mr. Carlson, Paul MD - Flight Crew Resources WHQFO

  • ALPA UAL MEC SSC Please PDR your questions using the “LOA 20-05 Pandemic Recovery Questions” committee selection.

Where is the progression by category?

There is no matrix per se - it is included in the main matrix. You can load the OCT or DEC matrix from the MAIN page. Then click the category (BES) box in the top right.

Select the category of choice from the next screen.

Now you can click the Matrix and see seniority progression - click any month and you will see info for that category in the top right box. Also, CCS staffing reports now offers a category progression matrix.

If you just want the category list, you can always access the DEC lists from the main menu here

The DEC CCS staffing lists account for (have removed) all PVSL 1 & 2 pilots, except the 66 pilots that retire April 1, 2021.

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