Updated: Sep 16
September 4, 2020, 03:00 CT.
Yesterday's townhall was very informative. A lot of good info, especially if you can read between the lines - but it was requested not to publish anything said or presented. Tyler Durden says we have to honor Fight Club rule #1.
What can be said is the obvious: everything is up in the air until the two main variables are settled. First, a potential CARES2, then - with or without CARES2 - a deal with ALPA. With October 1 approaching fast, it is crunch time.
The latest variable of significance is the CDC Covid vaccine announcement, which we discussed here. CDC wants to start rollout "in late October" (initial announcement planned rollout by November 1, 2020). Here is one skeptical view on the October/November timeline.
Related: NYT - Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker
CCS did not show any staffing changes overnight:
From ALPA, on Thu, Sep 3, 10:02 PM: "Thank you and congratulations to the 467 (as of this morning) United pilots who were awarded and have taken the P-VSL. Over 200 of these pilots began their leave on August 29, 2020."
During the townhall, Mr. Carlson mentioned that the Vacancy Bid screen in CCS is available for review.
The system junior man per the latest WARN bulletin is 10,194.
If we added correctly, the CCS Vacancy Bid screen shows 8,261 positions for active pilots.
Looking at the 20-09D award, we count the following:
LTA, All: 704 SUP, All: 534 Total: 1,238
20-09D, up to junior man number 10,194 we count 1,017 "inactive" pilots:
LTA, to #10,194: 534 SUP, to #10,194: 483 Total: 1,017
The CCS Vacancy Bidding screen active pilot staffing (8,261) plus the 1,017 "inactive" pilots add up to 9,278.
UPDATE - 11:00 CT
We looked at the P-VSL awards that are no longer in the SEP CCS staffing report.
We count 382 exits from the SEP CCS staffing report. The PDF is here.
We removed the 382 early out awards (EO) from the 20-09D award.
The updated count is as follows:
LTA, All: 699 SUP, All: 531 Total: 1,230
20-09D, up to junior man number 10,194 we count 1,008 "inactive" pilots:
LTA, to #10,194: 529 SUP, to #10,194: 479 Total: 1,008
The CCS Vacancy Bidding screen active pilot staffing (8,261) plus the 1,008 "inactive" pilots add up to 9,269.
The correct comparison to the 9,269 number should be the DYNAMIC# for STATIC# 10,194.
You can go to the UAL Matrix -> Lists | Sen List -> Seniority List and look up any pilot's STATIC and DYNAMIC numbers. You also have a fast lookup of any pilot by name or employee ID.
We see that STATIC #10,194 has a DYNAMIC# of 9,631.
So, it makes sense that compressed DYNAMIC# 9,631 (STATIC# 10,194), on the latest SEP staffing report (early outs, etc., all considered) should be the correct comparison vs the vacancy bidding screen staffing numbers.
(10,194 -> ) 9,631- 9269 = 362.
The Vacancy Bidding screen total is 362 positions short of the current junior man at STATIC# 10,194 with DYNAMIC# 9,631. Take that with a grain of salt as everything is in flux pending a potential CARES2 act of Congress, and ALPA furlough mitigation LOAs.
The UAL Matrix PDF is here.
This is what the CCS Vacancy Bid screen shows for September 4, 2020:
(click the image for full screen view)